To Buy or Not to Buy
Bitcoin has been trading in this range of $9k-$9,500 for a long time now. As per usual, we're seeing a lot of analyses of the BTC price in the short-medium term that call for either a major bearish scenario or major bullish scenario.
The 3 main ideas I see out there right now are:
- A breakdown from $8900 with a pullback to follow that will bring us down to around $7500
- A run-up in price where we blast through $10,500 resistance and see prices hit $12-$13k
- A major bearish scenario where we see BTC drop down to $4k
If I were to make a personal bet, I would say that I expect the liklihood of these scenarios as:
- 30% chance
- 60% chance
- 10% chance
Obviously, I'm pulling these numbers out of thin air. From a personal belief standpoint as I take in all that I've read and the conversations I've had, I think it's most likely that we see a breakout from here to something above $10,500.
If that doesn't happen, then the next most likely scenario is that we'll see BTC drop down to $7500 - which is a scenario that we've talked about and analyzed on the LEO Roundtable podcast episodes. In this scenario, I'd be loading up my BTC bags and getting ready for the eventual rally to $10,5.
The last scenario is the least likely. I think many traders felt the pain back in mid-march when we saw one of the largest intraday drops ever in BTC history. Many call this the Covid dip.
I don't see this happening to be completely honest. Anything's possible which is why I gave it a small chance in my rough guesstimations, but if you were to hold a gun to my head, I'd say #3 is called upon by the "doomsday" thinkers.
Major Support at $8k?
With the stock market rallying to new highs and economies across the globe starting to open back up after Covid, I feel that we've seen the worst of Bitcoin in terms of major drops before the "post-halving rally" that should ensue months after the event back in May.
This heatmap is interesting. We can see some major support for BTC buyers at $8k. I'm among them as I've got orders in to buy BTC if it starts dropping below $8,800 all the way down to that doomsday $4k number.
Does Any of This Matter?
I'm not a trader. I'm not a short-term arbitrager. I like to make profits as much as the next guy/gal, but I don't like to sit around and worry to hell about the positions I take.
As I've said in my recent posts about my investment portfolio, I like to take long-term bets on technologies and innovative companies that have massive potential over the coming years.
At the end of the day, I want as much BTC as I can get. Not for the rally to $10,500 but for the next decade as a financial revolution takes place and we see BTC adoption more widespread amongst individuals and institutions.
My mantra in these uncertain times when I have trouble deciding where to buy is this: "10 years from now, the only thing you'll regret is not owning more Bitcoin"
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