Food Crisis In Africa Next Fall And Russia's Downfall Over The Next Few Years

Here's a statistic of the dependency of African countries on wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Blue is Ukraine.

I'm afraid Somalia, Tunisia and Libya will be greatly destabilized by the wheat exports from Ukraine being prevented by the maritime blockade by Russia if this war does not end soon.

Ten million Ukrainians have been displaced by the war. 6.5 million of the displaced people are in Ukraine and 3.5 million are in the rest of Europe. Europe will be facing an unprecedented refugee crisis because where else would these north and east Africans be heading.

All of this happens because of the 19th century great power ambitions of Putin and his fellow travelers in Russia.

This war is yet another demonstration how Russia is incapable of fighting wars except by ruthlessly disregarding its own soldiers' lives and those of the civilian populations of whatever country they are invading. Putin's Russia is an unfettered cleptocracy with corruption taking place on every level. The military is so poorly equipped, maintained and trained because the officers have stolen everything they can and given false reports to their superior.

As a result of the rule by mafia, Russia has an extractive economy. Such economies are incapable of producing anything complex in the long run. Raw materials are the only thing a mafia state can produce in a sustainably profitable manner and even that is questionable because as easily exploitable resources run out, large scale capital investment is required to keep exploiting resources that are harder to reach.

The invasion took place because Putin himself had been feed false information to begin with. He, of course, knew it, but under such a system it is always impossible to know how much exactly has been stoled. Putin chose to interpret his information optimistically and here we are.

Now, Russia has historically still been able to win wars because of its huge size and large population. It simply has had a virtually limitless supply of young men to sacrifice. But no more. Russia's total fertility rate is very low, under 1.5 per woman. Russia cannot win large land wars any longer. What this war in combination with the crippling sanctions do is only hasten Russia's downfall as a great power. This is precisely why retired hardline General Colonel Leonid Ivasov warned Putin from invading Ukraine last month. The general listed a host of good reasons not to invade aside from demographics.

A summary and commentary on the letter in English is here.

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