This is a very different viewpoint from the traditional one, and it seems more accurate as you have taken into an account powerful forces like cannabilization of existing sales, reduction of future parts and repair income, which is a large part of current revenue and both battery and AI technology.

I think the ERA of the human driven car is slowly coming to an end. Self driving cars offer mobility and independence to a huge population of aging Americans and younger disabled ones, not to mention young and old environmentally conscious ones. We are in the early days, but I foresee an ever accelerating pace towards obsolescence for current vehicles and adoption of self driving electrics.

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