When will the crypto market top? When should we sell, when should be rebuy?

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Hello, SPIer's. Today we're going to look into the past and try to predict the future. Why? For-profit, of course, sweet sweet profits. Not so much profits but preserving profits and then taking advantage of the crypto market cycle to increase our some of our holdings by 200-400% giving us a better chance to become a multi-million dollar fund in 5-10 years. Im not even joking are bullshiting, SPinvest could be worth a lot of money someday if we plan and have the balls to stick to our plans without letting emotions are attachment get in the way. I dont mean to act cold as ice but see where the market is at and act from an outsider's POV.

FOMOing has levels. When you think of FOMO, you only think about FOMO buying. You might not have considered FOMO HODLing, this is when you dont sell an investment that's maybe 10x with the "Fear of missing out" on more future gains, also known as over-HODLing (HODL has levels as well). There are so many levels to FOMO, I could write a 2000 word post about it, I just might someday as I like the word FOMO, it's such a fun word to say and type.

Anyways, crypto is still a new asset class, this bullrun we are on this year will end its 3rd complete market cycle (from my POV). By looking at the past 2 cycles we can predict or get a better idea of what to expect in this coming year. By sort of pre-planning long before the actual event, we can make a prediction and when our prediction comes true are we get close, selling out feels like more of an educated decision compared to a gut feeling. Selling out will be easy as we are following a plan to sell out high and buy back in low.

Now, im no analyst and I dont pretend to know something I dont. I look at something and see what it does, I dont try to understand it and why it does what it does, I just look and see what it does and then try to guess what it will do next or get close. In fact, to be blunt, the bet is that the same thing will happen again and we can capitalize on that to increase our BTC and ETH holdings so that when the next bullrun that comes in 4-5 years, SPinvest will have millions of dollars and be able to make all of the people that bought in early moderately wealthy folks. Were talking Tesla's not Lambos but top of the range Tesla's.

Starting out, let's look at the 2013 bullrun that lead to the bear market in 2014. We can see what we need to see. We see the top and when it happened, we see the bottom and when it happened, we see the time gap between top and bottom and we see by how much BTC's price dropped. Interesting stuff.

Now let's take a look at the 2017 bullrun and that lead into the bear market of 2018. Again we see mostly are all the same things happening. Weird? These are different charts 4 years apart.

So after looking at those two charts, when do you think Bitcoin will reach its market cycle all-time high and when will it hit the bottom of the next bear market if you had to guess. It could all be a coincidence or it all be based around Bitcoin halving events that take place every 4 years, no idea. I see these charts and my mind acts like it has found a loophole to a BTC multiplier that comes around every 4 years.

As I said before, Bitcoin is still young. As its market matures and its market cap grows into 14 digits, tens of trillions of dollar, the market cycle swings will not be as profitable. There are roughly 1 trillion dollars in BTC today, that's the efforts of almost 12 years. For it to go to $200k by Dec for example as that's a number thrown about alot, BTC would need an influx of money equivalent to the last 12 years times 3 in the next 9 months. As the crypto space grows in its entirety, bitcoin halving events will have less and less influence on the whole market so it's likely that in 20-30 years from now, a crypto market cycle could longer by a few years.

What would the plan be?

Well, from looking at the 2 charts above and using my simple monkey brain, I would say sell out around DEC and then buy back in around DEC/JAN after 12 months. This market cycle could be different, they say that but they say that every market cycle and then others forget. After every bull market comes a bear market and prices go down in a bear market. The whole world moves in cycles, the markets, the weather, when we eat certain foods, when we elect new leaders, everything. Your day is mostly a daily cycle you repeat every day without knowing. If you knew you wasted 30 minutes on the toilet every day playing games on your phone, you'd stop bringing your phone to the toilet and better allocate that time.

What do we do with the funds for 1 year? Convert to some stable tokens and spread it around into the likes of Nexo, Celsis, stable/stable LP's and stuff like that. Aiming to earn 10-15% for the year. The funds will be allocated to a range of different things but all will be 100% passive only requiring deposits.

If we sell in December and the price keeps going up, we bought something for $10k and sold it for maybe $150-200k, not the biggest mistake to make. It would need to go to over a million dollars to us to not be able to get our BTC back during the next bullrun. I'd say this is a safe bet, most would dismiss it because it takes a year to complete and they might not have the self believe or balls to pull the trigger with the fear of missing out on future gains. They know in reality the party can't last forever and the price will decline at some point but they live with hope that the music never stops. They will see during the next bear market that being loyal to crypto are any investment when the bulls are sleeping will cost them up to 90% of their portfolio's dollar value. Unfortunately, we have no real control over market cycles and the best we can do is to capitalize for them.

Selling out 50k HIVE at $5 if it hits that high would piss a lot of SPI tokens holders off but if we were able to buy back 500k 12-18 months later for 50 cents each, everyone would say im a genius. We're not selling HIVE, that was just an example but you see im only thinking about growth and planning more than a few months ahead. Sometimes my actions might not make sense but I have a bigger picture in my head and not everyone is aboard 100% of the time. That's normal and all part of being part of the bigger group.

When I talk about selling BTC, im not saying I dont like BTC are I dont think it's a good investment for the long term. Im saying we should take advantage of its market cycles while we can so that we can have more BTC in the future. It has nothing to do with the investment, the investment is a pawn within its investment class market cycle. The investment could perform better or worse compared to other investments in its class but the investment will follow the market cycle trend in general. I think taking the small risk for the reward is a show of love for Bitcoin, haha. We dump into the FOMOer's at the height of the top and we buy from the weak hand at the bottom. We are providing a service. lol

The finish off, I'd just like to say that sadly we cant predict the future and we have no idea what will happen. We can only plan and hope these plans work out. The sad thing is we never know when the bullrun has ended until 2-3 months after it's happened. We are used to Bitcoin and crypto moving 20% in a day so when it does we dont see that as the market bubble popping. If you ever see gold jump more than 20% in 1 day, I'd bet my left nut war has been declared by 2 heavily armed 1st world countries. With crypto, it takes a few months to see the bigger picture so even our best-laid plans are no better than educated guessing.

Thank you for reading through today's post. I like writing about Bitcoin, it gets me excited. I've not spoken about numbers because I have no idea how high BTC could go in this cycle, I'd guess whatever the price is in December. Let me know what you think. Im i a fool with a head full of mad ideas are does what i said make sense?

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