Ready to Explode?
I haven't started my Splinterlands campaign for this season yet, mostly because I screwed up my rentals. About four days ago I cancelled my Wild Deck rentals, however I use Splinterrents to manage it at times and I forgot to deactivate it. So, while things were coming off rent, it was rerenting them in the background and I didn't notice until a day or two later.
Doh!
But, it has worked out pretty well, as I think it was "too early" for me to play anyway and this season, I am going to go with a new strategy compared to last. Last, I played modern first where I don't need to rent quite as many cards and then moved to wild. The problem was, there wasn't many people (bots) at the top of wild to play, so I was struggling to get anywhere and destroyed my ECR far too fast. This meant that when I moved to wild, I was limited, because dropping below the 50% ECR would incur about a 2.5% drop per match.
This season, I will start with Wild and hopefully move up in the early stages easily enough. But, when I start to struggle, I will move over to the Modern format to play there, if I have the ECR to spare. I used to not care about ECR at all (leading me to be labelled a bot), but I am trying to clean up my gameplay a bit and make it more effective. Most of the time, the high volume of games has nothing to do with me not progressing, and everything to do with me just mindlessly playing while I am doing something else. A little focus and discipline and I think I can do okay.
It might also mean that I am able to complete some challenges and earn a few extra chests, as even if they aren't necessarily worth "that much" in the grand scheme, it is always fun to open them and have that lottery feeling when it starts to shake. I think I have got one GFL in the last year from rewards. This will mean renting cards that I won't be using all the time too, as of course, the Wild early cards can't be used in Modern, so they will stay dormant. However, I also plan on entering into a tournament or two, to break up the gameplay and still let me play, without burning ECR. I am not sure which tournaments yet.
Unit Bias
The other day I said I have "done my dash" on large Splinterlands purchases, which I found out is an Australianism and even a Brit didn't know what I was talking about. What it means is, I am spent, out of energy, need a rest. I had firstly bought another node license and then after saying I wouldn't, moved the DEC I had into more SPS. This left me with nearly 500K.
Buuuuuut.......
Fucking unit bias kicked in and being just under was annoying me, so I bought a bit more to push me over, staking "just enough" to hit all of those pretty zeroes.
At least for a moment, because just after, I staked a little more and broke them.
So, now I feel I am ready. Rift Watchers are coming and I am hoping to get as many of those as I can, and I assume that SPS is going to increase in value as other people will want to get as many as they can too. Sure, a lot are going to sell on the pre-existing SPS stake, but since 80% of the SPS used will be burnt, this will also increase the value of SPS over time, especially now that the distribution will be a little slower after the end of the airdrop.
There are 3 million Rift Watcher Packs, priced at $5 each worth of SPS, which is 15 million worth of SPS at the current prices. That is, just under a quarter of the total market cap, so just under a quarter of the supply and will chew about 210M tokens, burning about 160 million of those.
If price doubles from here, that becomes 105 million tokens eaten and 81 million burned, which is still a large 10% burn of the supply emissions so far.
At least for me, as long as there is demand past this, even if I don't get all the RWs I would like, the position is good for Splintershards for the future and I suspect, this won't be the last sale using them. Not only that, there is still the 30% APR on the staked SPS which means that (if steady) the next year would technically bring in another 150K worth of SPS, although this 30% includes the value of vouchers in the percentage, which are going to fluctuate up and down.
Vouchers should go up with RW release as there will be a presale element that should put some demand on them. Also, there will likely be discounts as there are now on packs, where in order to get the bonus packs, vouchers are needed. As I have 3 nodes now, I am earning vouchers daily on them, plus what comes from my stake, so I should have enough for my bonuses and perhaps a few more to sell into the market liquidity, unless something else comes up that makes me want to hold. And if that happens, I won't be the only one holding, pushing vouchers up in value too.
And I suspect, what will drive a voucher supply shock is the rising price of SPS and the dwindling supply of Node Licenses in Tranche 1, where it will take about another 1,000,000 to sell through to the start of Tranche 2. There are plenty of vouchers out there for this, but it is the other side that many are lacking or unwilling to spend, the SPS side. With rising SPS, that changes and people will feel more comfortable using some of their stake on it. Meaning a bit more SPS out of the supply, where a doubled SPS value using vouchers would mean about 20M more for what is left in Tranche 1. Tranche 2, changes this again, but if SPS keeps rising, the increased price of a License decreases in SPS terms, but for those who already have the licenses they are after, they are home and hosed and could even start selling into the demand through secondary market, at a little less than available at the in-game shop.
Taking this position in Splinterlands is a massive gamble for me and might very well end up in tears, but if it does manage to move forward well, it could also be tears of joy, at least from a financial sense. Most of my life has been burdened with economic struggle, some I had no control over and some self-inflicted, but working my way into this potential position is something I don't think I could even dream about throughout my life. And especially after all of the other trials and tribulations of the last decade or two. And what is very cool is, it is all done through communities of people who are often changing their individual lives for the better, together.
Quite Amazing.
There are no guarantees though and there is plenty of opportunity for crash and burn too - but just to have the chance is better than sitting back and accepting fate that there is no way.
The way isn't short journey though.
Taraz [ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
