Running on Batteries

One of my complaints with Splinterlands of late, is how many different tokens there are and how to use them. This might be a personal issue more for me, but there is a lot of complexity and not a lot of clarity even on what does what, or what will do what in the future. I feel like I need some kind of "Idiots Guide" to Splinterlands tokenization to understand. The next complaint is all of the proposals that are looking to be pushed though, which I get, but if the system is overused, it becomes one of complacency, as people tire of having to try and understand the many ramifications involved and then, a lot of crap ends up passing and it becomes just another ineffective government.

My other gripe is that so many of my monsters are just not performing, where for example Blight is not laying any poison down after hitting three or four time in a row - but that is a case for another day.

Having said this, there are a lot of things to consider in Splinterlands in terms of investment potential, as well as a lot of paths to take, which is largely a good thing. No clear path to maximization is good, because it sets up tensions between different systems and puts game into the game, meaning that there is competition, not only for resources, but also processes. When everyone goes the most lucrative way, it begins to lose its value and then other aspects become more valuable. However, it isn't always possible to make a shift quickly or without losing value from one to the next, which sets up risk in the decision making process.

I have long held the same view of Hive and how there are many ways to interact and benefit from the platform, with some being more valuable than others. And, it is interesting over the last years where there are an increasing number of ways to earn, like HBD in savings for a percentage return on a "fairly stable" asset. It is "only" twenty percent, but there is some security with it, as even though the price has dropped much lower and gone much higher, it has for now at least rebalanced to around that dollar parity mark.

I have been looking at the Binance chart on HIVE:USD with a weekly filter and feel that around the late April to mid-May region we might be getting some decent action.

However, what is interesting to note there is the massive difference in volume between the increase in price at the start of 2021 and the very low volume at the start of 2022, considering the drive in price was 3x as high. What does this indicate? Were people scared to sell, that a lot of people had already sold and didn't have anything to sell, or like me - just held, up and down.

This is part of the game too, isn't it?

And, there is more to it than just selling on an exchange, because at least some people use the high value of HIVE to buy Splinterlands assets instead of selling into fiat. I did a little of this too, but probably should have done more, because overall, many of the key Splinterlands assets have dropped less in comparative price than HIVE which has dropped 90%, but not some assets like SPS, which has dropped 97%.

That difference might not sound like much, but if for example Asset A and Asset B are both worth a dollar and one drops by 90% and one drops by 97%, the respective prices are 10 cents and 3 cents. That means for Asset B to get to the same value, it has to first increase 330% from its low. Depending on the asset, that might be a relatively simple task, or it might be a mammoth proposal.

However, if buying with fiat to invest, it might be better to buy the lower asset, because they might both go back to the dollar mark, perhaps. That means that while buying Asset A will get a 1000% gain, asset B would see a 3000% gain.

Size matters.

And, the size of my own ability to keep up has apparently shrunk, as my attention is not what it used to be and I am unable to hold focus for as long, or as intensely. However, I still think that even though I am less capable to participate, participating is still far more valuable than not. It is like exercising or eating well - it may not lead to being super fit or a high level of health, but doing something is better than doing nothing.

While I might complain about the various conditions, this doesn't mean that the conditions are unfavorable for others and their various approaches. This is something to remember in terms of Hive too, where people will never be entirely satisfied with the platform, because it will never carter to all of their wishes, nor the skills that they have or don't have. Sometimes it works in the favor of one approach, sometimes another, but at the end of the day, those who are able to do a bit of everything and maximize nothing, tend to do better than the average.

This is a funny situation in some respects, because it should end up with average results, but as said above, when everyone is doing the same thing, the results are going to have diminishing returns. When most people are looking to maximize, they will focus on what is the current approach, often costing them a foothold in other areas that may very well be the better approach in the next iteration. And then, many people only participate with and do things that they are comfortable doing, which favors their strengths, but that doesn't mean their strengths are suited to the conditions of the moment. While comfortable, this reduces their ability to evolve their skillset, as well as locks them out of a lot of opportunity, as they don't even see it exists.

All of my investment paths might amount to nothing, or, it could be that one or two of them do well, while the others fail miserably. One thing is for quite certain though, nothing will be maximized, because I just don't have the mindset or ability to do it. There is an opportunity cost to everything, including not doing anything. But doing nothing, can cost it all.

Taraz [ Gen1: Hive ]